The accuracy of climate models predictions

1.According to E. Lorenz a chaotic system cannot be predicted accurately because the result of prediction is very sensitive to initial conditions (butterfly effect).

2.It is difficult to represent the natural forcings (solar activity, galactic cosmic ray flux, volcanic eruptions) in a climate model.

3. The accuracy of climate models to predict sea surface temperature anomalies in Pacific ocean 9 month ahead of the happening are only 70% (errors are about 30%).

So, we can conclude that long range predictions of climate models have low accuracies.

The chorus of skeptical scientific voices grow louder in 2008 as a steady stream of peer-reviewed studies, analyses, real world data and inconvenient developments challenged the UN’s and former Vice President Al Gore’s claims that the “science is settled” and there is a “consensus.”

On a range of issues, 2008 proved to be challenging for the promoters of man-made climate fears. Promoters of anthropogenic warming fears endured the following: Global temperatures failing to warm; Peer-reviewed studies predicting a continued lack of warming; a failed attempt to revive the discredited “Hockey Stick“; inconvenient developments and studies regarding rising CO2; the Spotless Sun; Clouds; Antarctica; the Arctic; Greenland’s ice; Mount Kilimanjaro; Global sea ice; Causes of Hurricanes; Extreme Storms; Extinctions; Floods; Droughts; Ocean Acidification; Polar Bears; Extreme weather deaths; Frogs; lack of atmospheric dust; Malaria; the failure of oceans to warm and rise as predicted.

http://eapsweb.mit.edu/research/Lorenz/Three_approaches_1969.pdf

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/27/james-hansens-former-nasa-supervisor-declares-himself-a-skeptic-says-hansen-embarrassed-nasa-was-never-muzzled/

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