Prediction System of Economic Crisis in Indonesia using Time Series Analysis and System Dynamic Optimized by Genetic Algorithm

Prediction System of Economic Crisis in Indonesia using Time Series Analysis and System Dynamic Optimized by Genetic Algorithm
Siti Sa’adah., MT, Prof. The Houw Liong, Adiwijaya, MSi

Abstract — Economic crisis that had happened at 1997-1998 in Indonesia stimulate the researchers to study further because economic that came from words ‘ecos’ and ‘nomos’ means of life which can be used as economic indicators. The economic indicators are GDP (Gross Domestic Product), inflation, population, and oil import per year from 1980-2011, will be tested using time series analysis and system dynamic optimized by algorithm genetic.
The results are 93% – 99% accuracy in training and up to 90% accuracy for testing. These results proved that, the prediction system able to fit data in finding historical optimal and small error. Error that had been gotten in this system used by the data that been used is too little and from the side of the economic itself. Because of economic science is a chaotic complex system, so the error cannot be avoided.

Index Terms — prediction system, economic crisis, system dynamic, time series analysis, genetic algorithm.

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