Long Term Predictions of Economic Crisis in Indonesia Using System Dynamic Model Optimized By Adaptive Genetic Algorithm

Long Term Predictions of Economic Crisis in Indonesia Using System Dynamic Model Optimized By Adaptive Genetic Algorithm

Fajri R Umbara
Telkom University
Bandung, Indonesia
fajri.umbara@gmail.com
The Houw Liong
Telkom University
Bandung, Indonesia
thehl007@gmail.com
Deni Saepudin
Telkom University
Bandung, Indonesia
Denis7579@gmail.com

Abstract — Indonesia experienced economic crisis in 1998 and
caused by various reasons. One of the reasons was the weakened
value of rupiahs to US dollars. Because of this, investors did not
believe rupiahs anymore. This condition also made many private
companies in our country collapse caused by highest value of
external debt. The fact; however, Indonesia was survived from
this crisis.
This study attempted to predict in order to avoid economic crisis
in Indonesia using monetary crisis and energy crisis prediction as
earlier warning for economic crisis. This studied applied a model
called System Dynamic Model to develop a model of Indonesian
Economic conditions. The data were taken from worldbank and
the factors are GDP, External Debt as factors for indicate
monetary crisis, and Energy Production and Energy Use as
factors to indicate energy crisis. This model was build for 100
years; it is from 1971 until 2070. This study was based on report
of “Limit to Growth”. Since the system dynamic model applied
coefficients called dynamic coefficients, then the method called
Adaptive Genetic Algorithm was applied to find the solutions.
This adaptive behavior from the genetic algorithm applied fuzzy
system.
The experiments show that the MAPE value was ranging from
0.08 – 0.22 and accuracy was ranging from 77% – 95% for
creating models from historical data. This result showed that the
algorithm was capable to find the solutions.
From developed model shows that the policy in Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono reign succeed to avoid monetary crisis for 10 – 30
years than policy before Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono reign,
meanwhile both policies cannot avoid energy crisis. The
government or the future president must create policies about
utilization of alternative energy.
Keyword (s): Economic Crisis, System Dynamic Model, Adaptive
Genetic Algorithm, Fuzzy System, Limit to Growth.

Comments :

This study shows that the government can postpone the economic crisis by increasing the national debts, but this is only temporary solutions. Long term solutions should include the improvement of the management of natural resources, because Indonesia is wealthy in the ocean and rain forests.

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