New study claims to confirms water vapor as global warming amplifier – but other data says no


Global warming amplifier

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Just because something is said to be an amplifier doesn’t mean it actually is doing so, plus other datasets don’t show an increase in water vapor.  See below. Also, you gotta love the big burning ball of hot they included with the press release.

From the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science

Scientists suggest that water vapor will intensify future climate change projections

This is a color enhanced satellite image of upper tropospheric water vapor.

MIAMI – A new study from scientists at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science and colleagues confirms rising levels of water vapor in the upper troposphere – a key amplifier of global warming – will intensify climate change impacts over the next decades. The new study is the first to show that increased water vapor concentrations in the atmosphere are a direct result of human activities.

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Strains of Critical Theory and the Tensions Between Them


Strains of Critical Theory and the Tensions Between Them

Originally posted on Larval Subjects .:

I.  “Critical Thinking”

Within the field of theory and philosophy, the term “critique” is highly ambiguous, signifying a variety of different things.  No doubt this is the source of many disputes.  There is, of course, the facile term “critical thinking” that we hear bandied about by many mainstream educational institutions.  This, of course, is not what is being referred to when theorists talk about a “critical theory”.  Indeed, if Althusser was right in naming educational institutions (along with church, family, and media) as one of the main sites of ideology wherein a society reproduces the conditions for its production, then it’s unlikely that critical theory would be received warmly by those dignitaries of the State that preside over education policy and who call for “critical thinking” as a central part of the curriculum.  Critical thinking in their sense might very well serve at the behest of ideology in Althusser’s sense…

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The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 14 – Warm Water Recirculated?

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Figure 0 - Page 12 from Wekly ENSO UpdateThere may still be a chance for an El Niño during the 2014/15 ENSO season. A new “pocket” of warm subsurface water has formed in the western equatorial Pacific. See the note in the page from the most-recent NOAA Weekly ENSO Update to the right. (Please click on illustration for full-sized image.) In their update, NOAA also makes note of that anomaly during their discussion of the Hovmoller on their page 15. That subsurface temperature anomaly appears to have been caused by the recirculation of warm water from the earlier downwelling (warm) Kevin wave, not by another westerly wind burst.  Come along, I’ll show you.

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Aplikasi Sistem Pakar Menentukan Pekerjaan Yang Cocok Dan Gaya Belajar Anak Dengan Metode Bayes

Aplikasi Sistem Pakar Menentukan Pekerjaan Yang Cocok
Dan Gaya Belajar Anak Dengan Metode Bayes

Egi Marer, The Houw Liong, Inge Martina
Departemen Teknik Informatika
Institut Teknologi Harapan Bangsa

Abstrak – Sistem Pakar adalah suatu sistem yang mengandung pengetahuan dan pengalaman dari satu atau banyak pakar dalam suatu area pengetahuan dan pengalaman, yang dirancang untuk memodelkan kemampuan dalam menyelesaikan masalah layaknya seorang pakar. Pada tugas akhir ini akan dibuat sistem pakar untuk menentukan gaya belajar anak dan pekerjaan yang cocok baginya dengan metode Bayes.

Gaya belajar ada 3 yaitu visual, auditory, kinesthetic. Walaupun masing-masing anak belajar dengan menggunakan ketiga gaya belajar ini pada tahapan tertentu, namun tetap memiliki kecenderungan pada salah satu di antara ketiganya yang merupakan cara ideal dalam memahami sesuatu objek yang dipelajari. Anak harus menjawab 30 pertanyaan, setelah menjawab pertanyaan maka akan dihitung dengan metode Bayes.

Metode Bayes digunakan untuk menghitung probabilitas dari setiap gaya belajar anak. Dari hasil perhitungan Bayes bisa ditentukan gaya belajar yang tepat untuk anak. Jika sudah mengetahui gaya belajarnya, maka dari gaya belajar tersebut bisa ditentukan pekerjaan yang cocok untuk masa depan anak. Jadi dalam tugas akhir ini anak bisa mengetahui gaya belajarnya dan bisa mengetahui pekerjaan yang cocok untuk masa depannya. Di aplikasi ini dilakukan pengujian terhadap siswa, jumlah siswa yang melakukan pengujian berjumlah 247 siswa. Dari 247 siswa 94,33 % menyatakan aplikasi berguna dan 5,67 % menyatakan aplikasi tidak berguna.

Kata Kunci: sistem pakar, gaya belajar, Bayes

Abstract – Expert System is a system that contains knowledge and experience of one or more experts in the area of knowledge and experience, which is designed to model the ability to solve problems like an expert. The expert system in this thesis is made to determine the child’s learning style and suitable jobs with the Bayes method.
There are 3 learning styles : visual, auditory, kinesthetic. Although each child learn to use all three learning styles at a certain stage, but still has a tendency to one of the three which is the ideal way to understand something in the object being studied. Children have to answer 30 questions, after answering the question then will be calculated by the Bayesian method.
Bayesian methods are used to calculate the probability of each child’s learning style. From the results of the bayes calculation, learning style can be determined for the child. If you already know the learning style, learning style then it can be determined that the job is suitable for the child’s future. So in this thesis, the child can determine their learning style and can find a suitable job for his future. The testing result on 247 students are 94.33% students say that useful application and 5.67% said application is useless.
Key words: expert system, learning style, Bayes

‘Climate models not only significantly over-predict observed warming in the tropical troposphere, but they represent it in a fundamentally different way than is observed’


Climate Model

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

LTmodels-observationsNew Paper by McKitrick and Vogelsang comparing models and observations in the tropical troposphere

This is a guest post by Ross McKitrick (at Climate Audit). Tim Vogelsang and I have a new paper comparing climate models and observations over a 55-year span (1958-2012) in the tropical troposphere. Among other things we show that climate models are inconsistent with the HadAT, RICH and RAOBCORE weather balloon series. In a nutshell, the models not only predict far too much warming, but they potentially get the nature of the change wrong. The models portray a relatively smooth upward trend over the whole span, while the data exhibit a single jump in the late 1970s, with no statistically significant trend either side.

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New paper finds transient climate sensitivity to doubling of CO2 is about 1°C


New paper finds transient climate sensitivity to doubling of CO2 is about 1°C

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

A new paper published in Ecological Modelling finds climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 concentrations is significantly lower than estimates from the IPCC and climate models which “utilize uncertain historical data and make various assumptions about forcings.” The author instead uses a ‘minimal model’ with the fewest possible assumptions and least data uncertainty to derive a transient climate sensitivity of only 1.093C:

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