Prediction of Malaria Incidence in Banggai Regency Using Evolving Neural Network

Prediction of Malaria Incidence in Banggai Regency Using Evolving Neural Network

Rita Rismala

Telkom Institute of Technology

Bandung, Indonesia

rismala.rita@gmail.com

The Houw Liong

Telkom Institute of Technology

Bandung, Indonesia

thehl007@gmail.com

Arie Ardiyanti

Telkom Institute of Technology

Bandung, Indonesia

rie@ittelkom.ac.id

 

Abstract— Malaria is an endemic disease in most of area in Indonesia, especially in rural and remote areas. Banggai, one of regencies in Central Sulawesi province, is a high endemic area of malaria with Annual Parasite Incidence (API) in 2010 reached 7.88‰. The incidence and spreading of malaria were influenced by environmental and weather factors, particularly rainfall and temperature. Therefore this study would like to develop a malaria incidence prediction system based on environmental and weather factors, so that it may assist Indonesian Ministry of Health to control malaria. The method used to solve the problem was Evolving Neural Network (ENN). This method was a mixture between Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA).

The result of this study shows that the prediction system has acceptable performance for predicting malaria incidence based on weather factors. The best performance in predicting malaria incidence in 2008 was 21.3% MAPE, 75% accuracy, and 84.21% F-value. While in predicting malaria incidence in 2009 was resulted 15.29% MAPE, 75% accuracy, and 40% F-value. These findings proved that there was a sufficient correlation between weather and malaria incidence. ENN also improved the performance of ANN up to 14.84% in MAPE, 25% in accuracy and 40% in F-value.

Keywords-Malaria, Prediction, Indonesian, Evolving Neural Network, Artificial Neural Network, Genetic Algorithm

 

Filsafat Ilmu Perspektif Islam dan Barat

http://harunalrasyidleutuan.wordpress.com/2010/01/22/filsafat-ilmu-menurut-perspektif-islam-dan-barat/#reblog

Banjir Jakarta, Banjir Solo, dan Banjir Pinggir Pantai

Reblogged from Dongeng Geologi:

• 
• 
• 
• 
• 

Foto : JawaPos. Banjir yang terjadi di Solo, di Jakarta dan pantai-pantai itu berbeda mekanisme dan penyebabnya. Penanganannyapun tidak digebyah uyah semua sama. Kalau setiap ada banjir trus yang disalahin pembuangan sampah mungkin hanya berlaku untuk daerah-daerah tertentu. Tapi jelas kalau banjir di Solo bukan karena sekedar pembuangan sampah, walaupun meninggalkan sampah yang menggunung.

:( "Wah jadi tiap banjir ada jenis-jenisnya ya Pakdhe ?"

Read more… 834 more words

Penanganan banjir

Russian Scientists say period of global cooling ahead due to changes in the sun

Reblogged from Watts Up With That?:

From Radio Voice of Russia:

Russia’s Pulkovo Observatory: “we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years”

Scientists at Russia’s famous Pulkovo Observatory are convinced that the world is in for a period of global cooling.

Graph by David Archibald

Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling.

Read more… 475 more words

Global Cooling

Monckton asks IPCC for correction to AR4

Reblogged from Watts Up With That?:

• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 

4 May 2013
IPCC Secretariat, Geneva

Gentlemen,

Request for correction of a serious inaccuracy in the contribution of Working Group 1 to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report

As an Expert Reviewer for the Fifth Assessment Report, 2013, and in accordance with the IPCC Protocol for Addressing Possible Errors in IPCC Assessment Reports, I am writing to report a serious inaccuracy in the contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report, 2007.

Read more… 2,739 more words

AR4

Thomson Reuters: Riset Indonesia Sedikit, Tetapi Berkualitas Tinggi & Dikutip Ilmuwan Dunia

Reblogged from Indonesia Proud:

Tidak dapat dipungkiri bahwa jumlah publikasi penelitian Indonesia memang rendah. Namun, ternyata kualitas riset Indonesia tergolong unggul.

Hal itu terlihat dari hasil analisis Thomson Reuters, sumber informasi intelijen terkemuka di dunia untuk perusahaan dan para profesional, yang disampaikan dalam konferensi pers di Jakarta, pada 26 April 2012.

Diketahui, secara ranking, jumlah publikasi riset Indonesia tergolong kedua terendah se-Asia Tenggara. Berdasarkan jumlah publikasi, negara yang paling produktif dalam riset berturut-turut adalah Singapura, Malaysia, dan Thailand.

Read more… 205 more words

Riset Indonesia

Supervolcano eruptions may not be so deadly after all – environment – 29 April 2013 – New Scientist

Supervolcano eruptions may not be so deadly after all – environment – 29 April 2013 – New Scientist.

Sains dan Agama, Peranannya Dalam Kehidupan Manusia dan Dalam Hakekat "Kebenaran"

Reblogged from Strategika!:

I. PENDAHULUAN

F. Budi Hardiman menyampaikan melalui tulisannya di harian Kompas, Jumat, 02 Februari 2007, dalam “Sains dan Pencarian Makna: Menyiasati Konflik Tua antara Sains dan Agama”, secara garis besar, ada tiga posisi untuk memahami hubungan antara sains dan agama dalam pencarian makna. Dengan makna di sini dimaksudkan terutama ’kebenaran’. Pertama, sains dan agama memiliki teritorium yang berbeda dalam pencarian makna.

Read more… 3,688 more words

SS

Numeracy in Climate Discussions - how long will it take to get a 6C rise in temperature?

Reblogged from Watts Up With That?:

• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 

The answer may surprise you

Note: This essay is a result of an email discussion this morning, I asked Dr. Happer to condense and complete that discussion for the benefit of WUWT readers. This is one of the most enlightening calculations I've seen in awhile, and it is worth your time to understand it because it speaks clearly to debunk many of the claims of temperature rise in the next 100 years made by activists, such as the…

Read more… 768 more words

Warning, Persiapan Perang Dunia ke III : AS Tempatkan Kapal Perang di Singapura, Ada apa Ini.?

Reblogged from Bayt al-Hikmah Institute:

Info Dunia Militer

AS Tempatkan Kapal Perang di Singapura, Ada apa Ini.?

SINGAPURA - Angkatan Laut Amerika Serikat tiba di Singapura untuk meningkatkan kehadiran militer di wilayah Asia Tenggara. Sebuah kapal militer akan ditempatkan selama 10 bulan.

Kapal tersebut akan bertanggungjawab terhadap wilayah dengan luas lebih dari 124 juta km persegi di Pasifik. Hingga 2020, Angkatan Laut AS akan menempatkan 60 persen asetnya di wilayah Asia-Pasifik.

Read more… 94 more words

Perang Dunia III ???